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Uppsala W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Uppsala W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

AIK W

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.7%0-28.1%0-33.8%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.0%2-16.9%2-24.8%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.8%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 20.0% 5.00 +55.5%

Draw 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Away win 42.0% 66.7% 1.50 -37.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

BTTS 55.3% 58.8% 1.70 -6.0%

Home O1.5 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +1.9%

Away O1.5 40.4% 59.9% 1.67 -32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -33.1%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.3%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uppsala W1.1

AIK W1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UPPSALA W · PPG 1.67

AIK W · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Uppsala W (H) 31.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +55.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

AIK W (A) 42.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uppsala W face AIK W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uppsala W a 31% chance, the draw 27% and AIK W 42%, so AIK W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Uppsala W and 1.4 for AIK W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uppsala W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for AIK W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Uppsala W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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