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Nardo vs Spjelkavik Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Nardo

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Spjelkavik

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.3%0-23.1%0-31.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-03.8%1-17.2%1-26.7%1-34.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.1%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.0%3-15.6%3-25.2%3-33.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-15.0%4+-24.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 30.3% 3.30 +44.9%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 35.0% 57.8% 1.73 -39.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 49.4% 54.3% 1.84 -9.1%

BTTS 67.8% 74.6% 1.34 -9.2%

Home O1.5 64.1% 48.5% 2.06 +32.0%

Away O1.5 58.3% 71.9% 1.39 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.8%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nardo2.2

Spjelkavik1.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NARDO · PPG 1.62

SPJELKAVIK · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

72%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nardo (H) 43.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +44.9%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Spjelkavik (A) 35.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -39.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nardo face Spjelkavik in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nardo a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Spjelkavik 35%, so Nardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Nardo and 1.9 for Spjelkavik (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nardo are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.62 for Spjelkavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +66.1%.

Nardo vs Spjelkavik Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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