Today / Austria - Regionalliga - West / Lustenau vs Schwaz

Lustenau vs Schwaz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Lustenau

PPG 1.23 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Schwaz

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.5%0-25.2%0-34.0%0-4+4.0%1 1-03.2%1-17.4%1-28.5%1-36.5%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-16.0%2-26.9%2-35.3%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.4%3-13.2%3-23.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 46.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 55.3% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 47% / xG 1.6-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–2✓ 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lustenau1.6

Schwaz2.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSTENAU · PPG 1.23

SCHWAZ · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Lustenau (H) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schwaz (A) 46.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lustenau face Schwaz in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lustenau a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Schwaz 47%, so Schwaz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lustenau and 2.3 for Schwaz (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lustenau are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.50 for Schwaz. This match finished 2-2.

Lustenau vs Schwaz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Regionalliga - West Predictions