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NKP Podhale vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:45

NKP Podhale

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Warta Poznan

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-111.4%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.8%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 44.4% 2.25 -17.0%

Draw 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

Away win 34.2% 35.1% 2.85 -2.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Over 3.5 19.3% 29.4% 3.40 -20.6%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NKP Podhale1.2

Warta Poznan1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NKP PODHALE · PPG 2.13

WARTA POZNAN · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

NKP Podhale (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.3%

Warta Poznan (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

NKP Podhale face Warta Poznan in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NKP Podhale a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Warta Poznan 34%, so NKP Podhale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for NKP Podhale and 1.1 for Warta Poznan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NKP Podhale are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.88 for Warta Poznan. This match finished 2-2.

NKP Podhale vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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