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Tigers FC vs Brindabella Blu Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 08:00

Tigers FC

PPG 2.50 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brindabella Blu

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.1%1-12.1%1-21.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.6%2-14.5%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-023.9%4+-123.2%4+-211.3%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.0% 90.9% 1.10 -19.7%

Draw 19.2% 11.1% 9.00 +43.7%

Away win 7.8% 6.7% 15.00 +10.2%

Over 2.5 79.0% 82.0% 1.22 -3.6%

Over 3.5 77.7% 78.7% 1.27 -1.3%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 73% / xG 4.3-1.0 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.3%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 5–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigers FC4.3

Brindabella Blu1.0

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 77.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGERS FC · PPG 2.50

BRINDABELLA BLU · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tigers FC (H) 73.0%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -19.7%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +43.7%

Brindabella Blu (A) 7.8%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigers FC face Brindabella Blu in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigers FC a 73% chance, the draw 19% and Brindabella Blu 8%, so Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for Tigers FC and 1.0 for Brindabella Blu (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigers FC are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Brindabella Blu. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 7-0.

Tigers FC vs Brindabella Blu Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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