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W. Innsbruck vs Kuchl Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:30

W. Innsbruck

PPG 2.38 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kuchl

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.2%1-18.1%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.4%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-17.5%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 17.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 38.3% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 61% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

W. Innsbruck2.3

Kuchl0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

W. INNSBRUCK · PPG 2.38

KUCHL · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.38) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

W. Innsbruck (H) 60.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kuchl (A) 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

W. Innsbruck face Kuchl in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives W. Innsbruck a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Kuchl 17%, so W. Innsbruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for W. Innsbruck and 0.8 for Kuchl (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, W. Innsbruck are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Kuchl. This match finished 4-3.

W. Innsbruck vs Kuchl Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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