Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 / Orkla vs Melhus

Orkla vs Melhus Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Orkla

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Melhus

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 80% chance

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.3%0-23.6%0-33.8%0-4+6.4%1 1-01.3%1-14.1%1-26.4%1-36.7%1-4+11.5%2 2-01.2%2-13.7%2-25.7%2-36.0%2-4+10.2%3 3-00.7%3-12.2%3-23.4%3-33.5%3-4+6.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.4%4+-22.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+4.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 22.2% 4.50 -0.6%

Draw 20.3% 20.0% 5.00 +0.9%

Away win 57.7% 69.4% 1.44 -16.9%

Over 2.5 78.9% 80.0% 1.25 -1.4%

Over 3.5 72.3% 62.1% 1.61 +16.4%

BTTS 66.7% 71.9% 1.39 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob66.7%

A 58% / xG 1.8-3.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.7%

#2 1–2 6.4%

#3 2–3 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 1–4 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orkla1.8

Melhus3.1

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 72.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ORKLA · PPG 1.75

MELHUS · PPG 2.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

80%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Orkla (H) 22.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.9%

Melhus (A) 57.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orkla face Melhus in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orkla a 22% chance, the draw 20% and Melhus 58%, so Melhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Orkla and 3.1 for Melhus (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orkla are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.50 for Melhus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Orkla vs Melhus Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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