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Molde B vs Spjelkavik Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:30

Molde B

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Spjelkavik

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2% — a clear edge.

+39.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.7%0-20.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-01.1%1-12.5%1-22.9%1-32.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-01.8%2-14.3%2-25.0%2-33.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.1%3-14.9%3-25.7%3-34.5%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-110.2%4+-211.9%4+-39.2%4+-4+9.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 25.0% 36.4% 2.75 -18.8%

Over 2.5 79.0% 78.1% 1.28 +1.1%

Over 3.5 82.7% 59.2% 1.69 +39.8%

BTTS 66.7% 80.0% 1.25 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob66.7%

H 53% / xG 3.4-2.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.7%

#2 2–2 5.0%

#3 4–2 4.9%

#4 3–1✓ 4.9%

#5 3–3 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde B3.4

Spjelkavik2.3

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 82.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE B · PPG 1.67

SPJELKAVIK · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Molde B (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +6.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Spjelkavik (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde B face Spjelkavik in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde B a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Spjelkavik 25%, so Molde B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Molde B and 2.3 for Spjelkavik (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde B are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Spjelkavik. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Molde B vs Spjelkavik Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions