Today / Poland - II Liga - East / Kalisz vs Warta Poznan

Kalisz vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:30

Kalisz

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Warta Poznan

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.7%0-29.6%0-35.2%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.2%1-111.8%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.6%2-15.9%2-24.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 26.3% 3.80 +0.9%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 46.3% 54.6% 1.83 -15.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Over 3.5 27.1% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.3%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalisz1.0

Warta Poznan1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KALISZ · PPG 0.93

WARTA POZNAN · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Kalisz (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Warta Poznan (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalisz face Warta Poznan in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalisz a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Warta Poznan 46%, so Warta Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kalisz and 1.6 for Warta Poznan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalisz are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.80 for Warta Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Kalisz vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - II Liga - East Predictions