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Schwaz vs W. Innsbruck Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 29 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Schwaz

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

W. Innsbruck

PPG 2.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.85) vs Home GOOD (1.69)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.7%0-210.5%0-38.4%0-4+8.9%1 1-03.3%1-18.0%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.5%2-13.6%2-24.4%2-33.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.3%3-31.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 64.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.3% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob53.7%

A 64% / xG 0.9-2.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 0–3 8.4%

#5 1–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schwaz0.9

W. Innsbruck2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWAZ · PPG 1.69

W. INNSBRUCK · PPG 2.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.85) vs Home GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Schwaz (H) 13.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

W. Innsbruck (A) 64.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwaz face W. Innsbruck in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwaz a 14% chance, the draw 22% and W. Innsbruck 65%, so W. Innsbruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Schwaz and 2.4 for W. Innsbruck (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwaz are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 2.85 for W. Innsbruck. This match finished 1-5.

Schwaz vs W. Innsbruck Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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