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Spartak Trnava vs Z. Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Z. Michalovce

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 65.8% 1.52 -10.0%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -12.3%

Away win 19.5% 18.9% 5.30 +3.4%

Over 2.5 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

BTTS 56.3% 60.6% 1.65 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.3%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Trnava2.0

Z. Michalovce1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.83

Z. MICHALOVCE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Trnava (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -12.3%

Z. Michalovce (A) 19.5%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Trnava face Z. Michalovce in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Trnava a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Z. Michalovce 20%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Spartak Trnava and 1.1 for Z. Michalovce (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Trnava are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.38 for Z. Michalovce. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Spartak Trnava vs Z. Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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