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Holthausen-Bien vs Bersenbruck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Niedersachsen - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Holthausen-Bien

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Bersenbruck

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.5%0-22.4%0-32.7%0-4+5.4%1 1-00.9%1-13.0%1-25.1%1-35.7%1-4+11.2%2 2-00.9%2-13.2%2-25.3%2-35.9%2-4+11.7%3 3-00.7%3-12.2%3-23.7%3-34.1%3-4+8.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.9%4+-23.1%4+-33.5%4+-4+6.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 56.6% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 79.2% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 57% / xG 2.1-3.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.9%

#2 1–3 5.7%

#3 2–2 5.3%

#4 1–2 5.1%

#5 2–4 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holthausen-Bien2.1

Bersenbruck3.4

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 79.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLTHAUSEN-BIEN · PPG 0.75

BERSENBRUCK · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Holthausen-Bien (H) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bersenbruck (A) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Holthausen-Bien face Bersenbruck in Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holthausen-Bien a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Bersenbruck 57%, so Bersenbruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Holthausen-Bien and 3.4 for Bersenbruck (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holthausen-Bien are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.36 for Bersenbruck. This match finished 3-3.

Holthausen-Bien vs Bersenbruck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Match Preview & Prediction

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