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Egestorf L. vs Verden 04 Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Niedersachsen - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Egestorf L.

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Verden 04

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.2%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.4%1-17.8%1-24.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.5%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-18.0%4+-24.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 49.2% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0✓ 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egestorf L.2.4

Verden 041.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EGESTORF L. · PPG 2.07

VERDEN 04 · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Egestorf L. (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Verden 04 (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Egestorf L. face Verden 04 in Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egestorf L. a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Verden 04 22%, so Egestorf L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Egestorf L. and 1.2 for Verden 04 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egestorf L. are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.93 for Verden 04. This match finished 2-0.

Egestorf L. vs Verden 04 Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Match Preview & Prediction

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