Sparta vs Excelsior Prediction & Tips

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Netherlands - Eredivisie Regular Season - 34 Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel· Rotterdam Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30

Sparta PPG 1.44

2-3 MISS

Excelsior PPG 1.06

Away· +3.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.3%

Odds: 2.04 EV: -15.8%

Draw 25.2%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -1.0%

Away 33.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +3.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 32.9% Odds: 2.20 -27.6%

BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.42 -15.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sparta

1.52

Excelsior

1.38

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -15.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+3.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5/Under 65%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)