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Sparta vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

Sparta

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Excelsior

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.6%0-25.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.4%1-111.6%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.8%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 49.0% 2.04 -15.8%

Draw 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

Away win 33.4% 32.3% 3.10 +3.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 32.9% 45.5% 2.20 -27.6%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta1.5

Excelsior1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA · PPG 1.44

EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Sparta (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -15.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.0%

Excelsior (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta face Excelsior in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Excelsior 33%, so Sparta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sparta and 1.4 for Excelsior (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.06 for Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Sparta vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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