Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie / Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:30

Heerenveen

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLD ·

UPCOMING

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.3%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.1%1-111.0%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 26.3% 3.80 +31.5%

Draw 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -6.4%

Away win 42.5% 57.1% 1.75 -25.6%

Over 2.5 61.6% 69.4% 1.44 -11.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 65.4% 1.53 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–2 5.7%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen1.5

AZ Alkmaar1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.62

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.81

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +31.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.4%

AZ Alkmaar (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen a 35% chance, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 43%, so AZ Alkmaar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heerenveen and 1.6 for AZ Alkmaar (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.81 for AZ Alkmaar. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eredivisie Predictions