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Telstar vs Cambuur Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:30

Telstar

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Cambuur

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.6%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-26.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.3%3-16.6%3-25.0%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.2%4+-24.7%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 61.7% 1.62 -17.2%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Away win 27.9% 22.2% 4.50 +15.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 49.1% 47.6% 2.10 +3.1%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Away O1.5 47.6% 38.2% 2.62 +24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telstar2.2

Cambuur1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TELSTAR · PPG 0.92

CAMBUUR · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Telstar (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -17.2%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Cambuur (A) 27.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telstar face Cambuur in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telstar a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Cambuur 28%, so Telstar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Telstar and 1.5 for Cambuur (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telstar are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.25 for Cambuur. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.7%.

Telstar vs Cambuur Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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