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ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:45

ADO Den Haag

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

UPCOMING

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.8%0-24.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.2%1-18.9%1-27.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.0%3-15.2%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.7%4+-23.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 48.8% 2.05 -17.2%

Draw 21.4% 27.0% 3.70 -12.5%

Away win 38.2% 33.3% 3.00 +14.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADO Den Haag1.9

Fortuna Sittard1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADO DEN HAAG · PPG 1.25

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ADO Den Haag (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -17.2%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.5%

Fortuna Sittard (A) 38.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO Den Haag face Fortuna Sittard in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO Den Haag a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Fortuna Sittard 38%, so ADO Den Haag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for ADO Den Haag and 1.7 for Fortuna Sittard (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%.

ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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