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PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

PEC Zwolle

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Feyenoord

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.5%0-27.0%0-35.0%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.7%1-29.4%1-36.8%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.4%2-34.6%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-22.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 25.6% 3.90 +1.3%

Draw 23.0% 23.3% 4.30 -0.7%

Away win 50.8% 58.1% 1.72 -12.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Over 3.5 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob59.7%

A 51% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2✓ 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEC Zwolle1.4

Feyenoord2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 1.75

FEYENOORD · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

PEC Zwolle (H) 26.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -0.7%

Feyenoord (A) 50.8%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEC Zwolle face Feyenoord in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEC Zwolle a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Feyenoord 51%, so Feyenoord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for PEC Zwolle and 2.2 for Feyenoord (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.63 for Feyenoord. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 0-2.

PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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