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NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Go Ahead Eagles

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.9%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.8%1-17.1%1-25.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.2%3-25.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-18.0%4+-25.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 72.5% 1.38 -27.7%

Draw 22.9% 18.5% 5.40 +14.2%

Away win 24.7% 16.0% 6.25 +32.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 55.6% 54.6% 1.83 +1.8%

BTTS 62.9% 67.6% 1.48 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEC Nijmegen2.5

Go Ahead Eagles1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.81

GO AHEAD EAGLES · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

73%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

NEC Nijmegen (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -27.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +14.2%

Go Ahead Eagles (A) 24.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEC Nijmegen face Go Ahead Eagles in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Go Ahead Eagles 25%, so NEC Nijmegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.5 for Go Ahead Eagles (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.81 for Go Ahead Eagles. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 2-1.

NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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