Today / Poland - I Liga / Stal Rzeszow vs Wieczysta K.

Stal Rzeszow vs Wieczysta K. Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:30

Stal Rzeszow

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wieczysta K.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.8%0-26.6%0-34.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.3%1-35.9%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 26.7% 3.75 +13.3%

Draw 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Away win 45.0% 58.8% 1.70 -23.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Over 3.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Rzeszow1.4

Wieczysta K.1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL RZESZOW · PPG 1.38

WIECZYSTA K. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.38) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Stal Rzeszow (H) 30.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +13.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Wieczysta K. (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Rzeszow face Wieczysta K. in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Rzeszow a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Wieczysta K. 45%, so Wieczysta K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stal Rzeszow and 1.9 for Wieczysta K. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Rzeszow are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Wieczysta K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 1-5.

Stal Rzeszow vs Wieczysta K. Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - I Liga Predictions