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Chrobry Glogow vs Znicz Pruszkow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:30

Chrobry Glogow

PPG 1.69 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Znicz Pruszkow

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.8%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.0%1-110.6%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Over 3.5 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -6.8%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chrobry Glogow1.8

Znicz Pruszkow0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHROBRY GLOGOW · PPG 1.69

ZNICZ PRUSZKOW · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Chrobry Glogow (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Znicz Pruszkow (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chrobry Glogow face Znicz Pruszkow in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chrobry Glogow a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Znicz Pruszkow 22%, so Chrobry Glogow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chrobry Glogow and 0.8 for Znicz Pruszkow (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chrobry Glogow are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.00 for Znicz Pruszkow. This match finished 3-2.

Chrobry Glogow vs Znicz Pruszkow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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