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Zilina vs Podbrezova Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Zilina

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Podbrezova

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.1%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.5%1-18.8%1-25.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.8%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.0%4+-24.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 62.9% 1.59 -17.8%

Draw 24.0% 24.4% 4.10 -1.0%

Away win 24.3% 21.7% 4.60 +7.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zilina2.2

Podbrezova1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZILINA · PPG 2.00

PODBREZOVA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Zilina (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -17.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.0%

Podbrezova (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zilina face Podbrezova in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zilina a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Podbrezova 24%, so Zilina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Zilina and 1.3 for Podbrezova (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zilina are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Podbrezova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Zilina vs Podbrezova Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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