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Trencin vs FC Kosice Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Relegation Group - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Trencin

PPG 1.13 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Kosice

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.7%0-26.8%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.4%1-111.5%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.6%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 42.0% 2.38 -17.6%

Draw 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Away win 40.6% 39.4% 2.54 +3.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 66.7% 1.50 -11.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trencin1.3

FC Kosice1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRENCIN · PPG 1.13

FC KOSICE · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Trencin (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

FC Kosice (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trencin face FC Kosice in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trencin a 35% chance, the draw 25% and FC Kosice 41%, so FC Kosice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Trencin and 1.6 for FC Kosice (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trencin are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.93 for FC Kosice. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Trencin vs FC Kosice Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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