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TSV St. Johann vs Dornbirn Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

TSV St. Johann

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dornbirn

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.7%0-26.7%0-34.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.8%1-19.4%1-29.3%1-36.2%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.3%2-16.6%2-26.5%2-34.3%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 46.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.7% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TSV St. Johann1.4

Dornbirn2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TSV ST. JOHANN · PPG 1.23

DORNBIRN · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

TSV St. Johann (H) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dornbirn (A) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TSV St. Johann face Dornbirn in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TSV St. Johann a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Dornbirn 46%, so Dornbirn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for TSV St. Johann and 2.0 for Dornbirn (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TSV St. Johann are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.15 for Dornbirn. This match finished 0-1.

TSV St. Johann vs Dornbirn Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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