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Imst vs Lustenau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Imst

PPG 1.85 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lustenau

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.5%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.1%1-14.8%1-22.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.5%2-17.6%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-114.2%4+-28.4%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 17.5% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 63.3% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 62% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 3–0 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 4–1✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imst3.2

Lustenau1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IMST · PPG 1.85

LUSTENAU · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.85) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

Imst (H) 61.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lustenau (A) 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Imst face Lustenau in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imst a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Lustenau 18%, so Imst are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Imst and 1.2 for Lustenau (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imst are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.00 for Lustenau. This match finished 4-1.

Imst vs Lustenau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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