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Chojniczanka vs Z. Sosnowiec Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Chojniczanka

PPG 1.27 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Z. Sosnowiec

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.2%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 58.8% 1.70 -12.1%

Draw 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Away win 24.3% 25.3% 3.95 -2.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 59.3% 58.8% 1.70 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.3%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chojniczanka1.9

Z. Sosnowiec1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHOJNICZANKA · PPG 1.27

Z. SOSNOWIEC · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Chojniczanka (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -12.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Z. Sosnowiec (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chojniczanka face Z. Sosnowiec in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chojniczanka a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Z. Sosnowiec 24%, so Chojniczanka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Chojniczanka and 1.1 for Z. Sosnowiec (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chojniczanka are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.07 for Z. Sosnowiec. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Chojniczanka vs Z. Sosnowiec Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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