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Tigers FC vs C. Olympic Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:00

Tigers FC

PPG 2.40 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

C. Olympic

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 92.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+41.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.4%1-10.8%1-20.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-01.0%2-12.1%2-22.2%2-31.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.5%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-118.7%4+-220.0%4+-314.2%4+-4+12.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 71.4% 1.40 -9.1%

Draw 20.2% 22.7% 4.40 -6.7%

Away win 14.9% 20.0% 5.00 -15.3%

Over 2.5 79.3% 80.0% 1.25 -0.9%

Over 3.5 92.7% 65.4% 1.53 +41.8%

BTTS 66.7% 76.3% 1.31 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 65% / xG 5.1-2.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–2 4.7%

#2 4–2 4.7%

#3 5–1 4.4%

#4 4–1 4.4%

#5 3–2✓ 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigers FC5.1

C. Olympic2.1

COMBINED 7.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.3% · O3.5 PROB 92.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGERS FC · PPG 2.40

C. OLYMPIC · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Win probability 1X2

Tigers FC (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -9.1%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.7%

C. Olympic (A) 14.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigers FC face C. Olympic in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigers FC a 65% chance, the draw 20% and C. Olympic 15%, so Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Tigers FC and 2.1 for C. Olympic (7.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigers FC are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.20 for C. Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Tigers FC vs C. Olympic Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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