Today / Australia - Capital Territory NPL / Tuggeranong Utd vs Brindabella Blu

Tuggeranong Utd vs Brindabella Blu Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 09:15

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 2.40 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brindabella Blu

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.9%1-14.3%1-22.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.5%2-17.2%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-18.0%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-014.5%4+-115.9%4+-28.7%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.5% 80.0% 1.25 -18.1%

Draw 21.0% 20.8% 4.80 +0.5%

Away win 13.5% 12.5% 8.00 +4.8%

Over 2.5 69.8% 76.9% 1.30 -9.3%

Over 3.5 65.2% 58.8% 1.70 +10.8%

BTTS 59.7% 65.8% 1.52 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 66% / xG 3.4-1.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuggeranong Utd3.4

Brindabella Blu1.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 65.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 2.40

BRINDABELLA BLU · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tuggeranong Utd (H) 65.5%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -18.1%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +0.5%

Brindabella Blu (A) 13.5%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuggeranong Utd face Brindabella Blu in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuggeranong Utd a 66% chance, the draw 21% and Brindabella Blu 14%, so Tuggeranong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Tuggeranong Utd and 1.1 for Brindabella Blu (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuggeranong Utd are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Brindabella Blu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 5-1.

Tuggeranong Utd vs Brindabella Blu Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Capital Territory NPL Predictions