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Polonia Warszaw vs Wisla Krakow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:30

Polonia Warszaw

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wisla Krakow

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-19.2%0-28.9%0-35.7%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.9%2-15.7%2-25.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 52.4% 1.91 -33.0%

Draw 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Away win 51.2% 31.3% 3.20 +63.8%

Over 2.5 59.4% 65.4% 1.53 -9.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

BTTS 58.1% 69.4% 1.44 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.1%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 0–1✓ 9.2%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Warszaw1.1

Wisla Krakow1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA WARSZAW · PPG 1.50

WISLA KRAKOW · PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.87)

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Warszaw (H) 23.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Wisla Krakow (A) 51.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +63.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Warszaw face Wisla Krakow in Poland - I Liga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Warszaw a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Wisla Krakow 51%, so Wisla Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Polonia Warszaw and 1.9 for Wisla Krakow (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Warszaw are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.87 for Wisla Krakow. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Polonia Warszaw vs Wisla Krakow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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