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Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Pogon Siedlce

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stal Mielec

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 34.5% 2.90 +32.2%

Draw 28.6% 32.3% 3.10 -6.8%

Away win 25.9% 45.5% 2.20 -25.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 52.6% 1.90 -5.2%

Over 3.5 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Siedlce1.5

Stal Mielec1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SIEDLCE · PPG 1.19

STAL MIELEC · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Siedlce (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +32.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.8%

Stal Mielec (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Siedlce face Stal Mielec in Poland - I Liga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Siedlce a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Stal Mielec 26%, so Pogon Siedlce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pogon Siedlce and 1.1 for Stal Mielec (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Siedlce are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.88 for Stal Mielec. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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