Thun vs BSC Young Boys Prediction & Tips

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Switzerland - Super League Championship Group - 37 Stockhorn Arena· Thun Thursday, May 14, 2026 14:30

Thun PPG 2.11

3-8 MISS

BSC Young Boys PPG 1.11

Home· +10.7% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.0%

Odds: 2.05 EV: +10.7%

Draw 23.3%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -2.7%

Away 22.7%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -19.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.3% Odds: 1.35 -14.5%

Over 3.5 57.1% Odds: 1.85 +5.6%

BTTS 62.5% Odds: 1.30 -18.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Thun

2.62

BSC Young Boys

1.40

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -14.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-14.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=54.0%