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Thun vs BSC Young Boys Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group - 37 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 14:30

Thun

PPG 2.11 · HOME

3 – 8

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

BSC Young Boys

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.5%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.7%1-16.6%1-24.6%1-32.1%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.5%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-19.3%4+-26.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 48.8% 2.05 +10.7%

Draw 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Away win 22.7% 33.9% 2.95 -19.8%

Over 2.5 63.3% 74.1% 1.35 -14.5%

Over 3.5 57.1% 54.1% 1.85 +5.6%

BTTS 62.5% 76.9% 1.30 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-8

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thun2.6

BSC Young Boys1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

THUN · PPG 2.11

BSC YOUNG BOYS · PPG 1.11

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Thun (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +10.7%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

BSC Young Boys (A) 22.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thun face BSC Young Boys in Switzerland - Super League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thun a 54% chance, the draw 23% and BSC Young Boys 23%, so Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Thun and 1.4 for BSC Young Boys (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thun are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.11 for BSC Young Boys. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 3-8.

Thun vs BSC Young Boys Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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