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Servette vs Lausanne Sport Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 37 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:30

Servette

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lausanne Sport

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.5%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-26.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.3%3-16.6%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.2%4+-24.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Draw 24.4% 25.6% 3.90 -2.9%

Away win 24.0% 27.0% 3.70 -6.7%

Over 2.5 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Over 3.5 52.0% 42.6% 2.35 +22.2%

BTTS 62.6% 67.6% 1.48 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.6%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Servette2.2

Lausanne Sport1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SERVETTE · PPG 1.39

LAUSANNE SPORT · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Servette (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.9%

Lausanne Sport (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Servette face Lausanne Sport in Switzerland - Super League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Servette a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Lausanne Sport 24%, so Servette are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Servette and 1.5 for Lausanne Sport (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Servette are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.06 for Lausanne Sport. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Servette vs Lausanne Sport Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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