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Luzern vs FC Zurich Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 37 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:30

Luzern

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Zurich

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.3%0-21.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.7%1-16.0%1-24.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.3%3-17.0%3-25.7%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-18.8%4+-27.1%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Draw 23.3% 20.8% 4.80 +7.1%

Away win 24.1% 19.6% 5.10 +13.8%

Over 2.5 68.3% 74.1% 1.35 -7.8%

Over 3.5 61.6% 52.6% 1.90 +17.0%

BTTS 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern2.6

FC Zurich1.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 61.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN · PPG 1.06

FC ZURICH · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

72%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Luzern (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +7.1%

FC Zurich (A) 24.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern face FC Zurich in Switzerland - Super League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern a 53% chance, the draw 23% and FC Zurich 24%, so Luzern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Luzern and 1.6 for FC Zurich (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.89 for FC Zurich. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Luzern vs FC Zurich Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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