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Grasshopper vs Winterthur Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group - 37 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:30

Grasshopper

PPG 0.78 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Winterthur

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.3%1-17.8%1-25.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-16.9%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-16.8%4+-25.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Draw 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Away win 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Over 2.5 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Over 3.5 52.1% 39.2% 2.55 +32.9%

BTTS 62.5% 64.5% 1.55 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grasshopper2.3

Winterthur1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GRASSHOPPER · PPG 0.78

WINTERTHUR · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Grasshopper (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

Winterthur (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grasshopper face Winterthur in Switzerland - Super League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grasshopper a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Winterthur 24%, so Grasshopper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Grasshopper and 1.5 for Winterthur (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grasshopper are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.50 for Winterthur. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Grasshopper vs Winterthur Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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