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Tondela vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Tondela

PPG 0.63 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Moreirense

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.0%0-28.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.2%2-16.6%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 53.5% 1.87 -39.0%

Draw 29.7% 28.2% 3.55 +3.3%

Away win 37.7% 25.3% 3.95 +48.9%

Over 2.5 46.0% 50.0% 2.00 -8.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% 28.2% 3.55 -18.0%

BTTS 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.1%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tondela1.0

Moreirense1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TONDELA · PPG 0.63

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.63) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Tondela (H) 32.6%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -39.0%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.3%

Moreirense (A) 37.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +48.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tondela face Moreirense in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tondela a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Moreirense 38%, so Moreirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tondela and 1.3 for Moreirense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tondela are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.00 for Moreirense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Tondela vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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