Tondela vs Moreirense Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 33 Estádio João Cardoso· Tondela Monday, May 11, 2026 19:15

Tondela PPG 0.63

2-0 MISS

Moreirense PPG 1.00

Away· +48.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.6%

Odds: 1.87 EV: -39.0%

Draw 29.7%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +3.3%

Away 37.7%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +48.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.0% Odds: 2.00 -8.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% Odds: 3.55 -18.0%

BTTS 52.1% Odds: 1.80 -6.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Tondela

1.01

Moreirense

1.27

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+48.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.63) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)