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Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Santa Clara

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Nacional

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-112.4%0-26.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.0%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.3%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 47.2% 2.12 -16.7%

Draw 32.5% 30.8% 3.25 +5.6%

Away win 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -1.6%

Over 2.5 43.9% 50.0% 2.00 -12.2%

Over 3.5 15.2% 28.2% 3.55 -27.6%

BTTS 48.1% 56.5% 1.77 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

H 39% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Clara1.1

Nacional1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CLARA · PPG 1.25

NACIONAL · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Santa Clara (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -16.7%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +5.6%

Nacional (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Clara face Nacional in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Clara a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Nacional 28%, so Santa Clara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Santa Clara and 1.0 for Nacional (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Clara are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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