Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction & Tips

← Back to picks

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 33 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube· Vila do Conde Monday, May 11, 2026 19:15

Rio Ave PPG 0.94

1-4 MISS

Sporting CP PPG 2.38

Home· +26.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 12.5%

Odds: 11.50 EV: +26.3%

Draw 21.7%

Odds: 5.70 EV: +14.2%

Away 65.7%

Odds: 1.24 EV: -18.5%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.1% Odds: 1.40 -15.9%

Over 3.5 40.5% Odds: 2.00 -19.0%

BTTS 52.1% Odds: 1.75 -8.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-3 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rio Ave

0.73

Sporting CP

2.50

Model SuggestionAway -18.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -18.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+26.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home POOR (0.94)