Today / Portugal - Primeira Liga / Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Rio Ave

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sporting CP

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 76% chance

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-19.8%0-212.3%0-310.3%0-4+11.7%1 1-02.9%1-17.2%1-29.0%1-37.5%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.1%2-12.6%2-23.3%2-32.8%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 8.7% 11.50 +26.3%

Draw 21.7% 17.5% 5.70 +14.2%

Away win 65.7% 80.6% 1.24 -18.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Over 3.5 40.5% 50.0% 2.00 -19.0%

BTTS 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob52.1%

A 66% / xG 0.7-2.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.3%

#2 0–3 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rio Ave0.7

Sporting CP2.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIO AVE · PPG 0.94

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

76%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Rio Ave (H) 12.5%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +26.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +14.2%

Sporting CP (A) 65.7%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rio Ave face Sporting CP in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rio Ave a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Sporting CP 66%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Rio Ave and 2.5 for Sporting CP (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rio Ave are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 2.38 for Sporting CP. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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