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Portugal - Primeira Liga Monday, May 11, 2026 19:15 
Guimaraes PPG 1.75 
Casa Pia PPG 0.75
Portugal - Primeira Liga Monday, May 11, 2026 19:15 Guimaraes PPG 1.750-1 MISS
Casa Pia PPG 0.75Away· +0.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.3% Odds: 1.85 -3.2%
Over 3.5 30.2% Odds: 3.20 -3.4%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.80 -5.3%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Guimaraes 1.82
Casa Pia 0.95
Model Suggestion
BTTS -5.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+0.7%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+0.7%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 47 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -4.3%
Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=52.5%