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Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Guimaraes

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Casa Pia

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.9%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 58.8% 1.70 -10.8%

Draw 25.5% 26.3% 3.80 -1.9%

Away win 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Over 3.5 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guimaraes1.8

Casa Pia0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIMARAES · PPG 1.75

CASA PIA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Guimaraes (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.9%

Casa Pia (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guimaraes face Casa Pia in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guimaraes a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 22%, so Guimaraes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Guimaraes and 0.9 for Casa Pia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guimaraes are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Casa Pia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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