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Portugal - Primeira Liga logo Portugal flag Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 33 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos· Barcelos Monday, May 11, 2026 19:15
Gil Vicente logo Gil Vicente PPG 1.88
1-3 MISS
Arouca logo Arouca PPG 0.88
Over3.5· +15.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.3%
Odds: 1.66 EV: -11.5%
Draw 24.3%
Odds: 3.75 EV: -5.3%
Away 22.3%
Odds: 4.90 EV: +5.6%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.8% Odds: 1.83 +9.4%
Over 3.5 37.3% Odds: 3.10 +15.6%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.77 -6.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-1
4th 1-0
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Gil Vicente
2.16
Arouca
0.92

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +9.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+15.6%)

League Track Record

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -4.3%
Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=53.3%

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