Predict
Vantage
Today
Top Picks
Accuracy
Leagues
← Back to picks
Portugal - Primeira Liga
Regular Season - 33
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos· Barcelos
Monday, May 11, 2026
19:15
Gil Vicente
PPG 1.88
1-3
MISS
Arouca
PPG 0.88
Over3.5· +15.6%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
53.3%
Odds: 1.66
EV: -11.5%
Draw
24.3%
Odds: 3.75
EV: -5.3%
Away
22.3%
Odds: 4.90
EV: +5.6%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
59.8%
Odds: 1.83
+9.4%
Over 3.5
37.3%
Odds: 3.10
+15.6%
BTTS
52.6%
Odds: 1.77
-6.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-0
✘
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
2-1
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
3-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Gil Vicente
2.16
Arouca
0.92
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+9.4%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+15.6%)
League Track Record
↗
Based on 47 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
47%
O2.5/Under
57%
BTTS/No
47%
Score Hit
49%
ROI
-4.3%
Bet Hit
50%
(18 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=53.3%