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Gil Vicente vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Gil Vicente

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Arouca

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.2%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.9%1-19.1%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 60.2% 1.66 -11.5%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Away win 22.3% 20.4% 4.90 +5.6%

Over 2.5 59.8% 54.6% 1.83 +9.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 32.3% 3.10 +15.6%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gil Vicente2.2

Arouca0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.88

AROUCA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Win probability 1X2

Gil Vicente (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -11.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

Arouca (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gil Vicente face Arouca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gil Vicente a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Arouca 22%, so Gil Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gil Vicente and 0.9 for Arouca (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gil Vicente are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for Arouca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Gil Vicente vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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