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Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Estrela Amadora

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Famalicao

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-112.9%0-28.9%0-34.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.5%2-16.3%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 27.8% 3.60 +3.9%

Draw 28.6% 29.0% 3.45 -0.8%

Away win 41.8% 50.3% 1.99 -16.8%

Over 2.5 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Over 3.5 21.6% 32.3% 3.10 -19.8%

BTTS 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.1%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 9.3%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 0–2 8.9%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrela Amadora1.0

Famalicao1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELA AMADORA · PPG 1.06

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Estrela Amadora (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.9%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.8%

Famalicao (A) 41.8%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela Amadora face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela Amadora a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Famalicao 42%, so Famalicao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Estrela Amadora and 1.4 for Famalicao (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela Amadora are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.50 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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