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Dinamo Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.9%0-29.0%0-35.4%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.0%1-110.9%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.3%2-15.9%2-25.4%2-33.2%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 26.0% 3.84 +0.6%

Draw 27.0% 24.1% 4.15 +7.2%

Away win 46.7% 53.2% 1.88 -12.2%

Over 2.5 59.4% 59.9% 1.67 -0.8%

Over 3.5 33.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.2%

BTTS 54.6% 63.3% 1.58 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Moscow1.1

FC Krasnodar1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.36

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

60%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Moscow (H) 26.3%

ODDS 3.84 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.15 · IMPLIED 24.1% EV +7.2%

FC Krasnodar (A) 46.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Moscow face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Moscow a 26% chance, the draw 27% and FC Krasnodar 47%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dinamo Moscow and 1.8 for FC Krasnodar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Moscow are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.07 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Dinamo Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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