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Slask Wroclaw vs LKS Lodz Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:30

Slask Wroclaw

PPG 2.21 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

LKS Lodz

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.7%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.6%1-18.1%1-26.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.6%3-16.7%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.3%4+-24.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 52.4% 1.91 -1.6%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Over 2.5 63.3% 60.6% 1.65 +4.4%

Over 3.5 50.3% 40.0% 2.50 +25.8%

BTTS 62.5% 65.4% 1.53 -4.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2✓ 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slask Wroclaw2.2

LKS Lodz1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SLASK WROCLAW · PPG 2.21

LKS LODZ · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Slask Wroclaw (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

LKS Lodz (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slask Wroclaw face LKS Lodz in Poland - I Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slask Wroclaw a 52% chance, the draw 25% and LKS Lodz 24%, so Slask Wroclaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Slask Wroclaw and 1.5 for LKS Lodz (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slask Wroclaw are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.33 for LKS Lodz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Slask Wroclaw vs LKS Lodz Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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