Today / Russia - Premier League / Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Kazan

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Kazan Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 14:30

Spartak Moscow

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rubin Kazan

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 49.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.5%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.8%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 64.5% 1.55 -27.6%

Draw 29.0% 23.5% 4.25 +14.0%

Away win 24.3% 15.4% 6.50 +34.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 49.8% 2.01 -7.7%

Over 3.5 19.3% 29.2% 3.42 -20.4%

BTTS 50.4% 49.3% 2.03 +2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Moscow1.3

Rubin Kazan0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 2.14

RUBIN KAZAN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Moscow (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -27.6%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV +14.0%

Rubin Kazan (A) 24.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +34.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face Rubin Kazan in Russia - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Rubin Kazan 24%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Spartak Moscow and 0.9 for Rubin Kazan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Rubin Kazan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Kazan Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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