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Rubin vs Akhmat Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:30

Rubin

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

UPCOMING

Akhmat

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.1%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.3%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 36.2% 2.76 +30.6%

Draw 24.7% 32.5% 3.08 -14.3%

Away win 28.0% 35.5% 2.82 -12.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 42.6% 2.35 +26.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.5% 4.25 +34.3%

BTTS 54.4% 51.8% 1.93 +5.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 35.0% 2.86 +14.1%

Away O1.5 27.4% 34.0% 2.94 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.4%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rubin1.5

Akhmat1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RUBIN · PPG 1.56

AKHMAT · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rubin (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +30.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.08 · IMPLIED 32.5% EV -14.3%

Akhmat (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rubin face Akhmat in Russia - Premier League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rubin a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Akhmat 28%, so Rubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rubin and 1.0 for Akhmat (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rubin are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.85 for Akhmat. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +38.4%.

Rubin vs Akhmat Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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