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Portugal - Primeira Liga
Regular Season - 33
FC Alverca Sports Complex· Alverca do Ribatejo
Sunday, May 10, 2026
19:30
Alverca
PPG 1.56
1-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Estoril
PPG 0.94
Over2.5· +0.8%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
37.1%
Odds: 2.42
EV: -10.2%
Draw
26.4%
Odds: 3.45
EV: -5.3%
Away
36.5%
Odds: 2.70
EV: -1.5%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
59.3%
Odds: 1.70
+0.8%
Over 3.5
34.1%
Odds: 2.75
-6.2%
BTTS
58.8%
Odds: 1.55
-8.9%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✔
2nd
1-2
✘
3rd
2-1
✘
4th
0-0
✘
5th
0-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Alverca
1.40
Estoril
1.55
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+0.8%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 47 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
47%
O2.5/Under
57%
BTTS/No
47%
Score Hit
49%
ROI
-4.3%
Bet Hit
50%
(18 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away POOR (0.94)