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Alverca vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:30

Alverca

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Estoril

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.1%0-26.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.3%1-111.4%1-28.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 41.3% 2.42 -10.2%

Draw 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Away win 36.5% 37.0% 2.70 -1.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 58.8% 1.70 +0.8%

Over 3.5 34.1% 36.4% 2.75 -6.2%

BTTS 58.8% 64.5% 1.55 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alverca1.4

Estoril1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVERCA · PPG 1.56

ESTORIL · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Alverca (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

Estoril (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alverca face Estoril in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alverca a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Estoril 37%, so Alverca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alverca and 1.5 for Estoril (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alverca are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.94 for Estoril. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Alverca vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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