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Spartak Trnava vs Zilina Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 9 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.87 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Zilina

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.0%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.1%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 61.0% 1.64 -34.4%

Draw 25.2% 25.0% 4.00 +0.5%

Away win 34.8% 23.0% 4.35 +51.4%

Over 2.5 59.3% 62.5% 1.60 -5.1%

Over 3.5 36.0% 40.0% 2.50 -10.0%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Trnava1.6

Zilina1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.87

ZILINA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Trnava (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -34.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.5%

Zilina (A) 34.8%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +51.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Trnava face Zilina in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Trnava a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Zilina 35%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Spartak Trnava and 1.4 for Zilina (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Trnava are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.47 for Zilina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +51.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Spartak Trnava vs Zilina Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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