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AVS vs FC Porto Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:00

AVS

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FC Porto

PPG 2.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Away 79% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-114.0%0-216.7%0-313.2%0-4+13.7%1 1-02.7%1-16.4%1-27.6%1-36.0%1-4+6.2%2 2-00.6%2-11.5%2-21.7%2-31.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.9% 8.3% 12.00 +11.3%

Draw 22.3% 15.6% 6.40 +25.6%

Away win 67.8% 83.3% 1.20 -18.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Over 3.5 31.4% 44.4% 2.25 -29.3%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob45.9%

A 68% / xG 0.5-2.4 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.7%

#2 0–3 13.2%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 0–4 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AVS0.5

FC Porto2.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AVS · PPG 0.56

FC PORTO · PPG 2.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

79%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.69) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

AVS (H) 9.9%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +11.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +25.6%

FC Porto (A) 67.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AVS face FC Porto in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AVS a 10% chance, the draw 22% and FC Porto 68%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for AVS and 2.4 for FC Porto (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AVS are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 2.69 for FC Porto. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 3-1.

AVS vs FC Porto Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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