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Lokomotiv M. vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Lokomotiv M.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Baltika

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.0%0-26.8%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.4%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 49.0% 2.04 -25.9%

Draw 28.2% 29.1% 3.44 -1.8%

Away win 35.5% 25.3% 3.95 +40.2%

Over 2.5 45.8% 45.9% 2.18 -0.2%

Over 3.5 18.9% 26.0% 3.84 -16.4%

BTTS 52.3% 52.9% 1.89 -1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–0✓ 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv M.1.1

Baltika1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV M. · PPG 2.00

BALTIKA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv M. (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -25.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.44 · IMPLIED 29.1% EV -1.8%

Baltika (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv M. face Baltika in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv M. a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Baltika 36%, so Lokomotiv M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lokomotiv M. and 1.1 for Baltika (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv M. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Baltika. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Lokomotiv M. vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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