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Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

Pogon Siedlce

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stal Rzeszow

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.5%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.3%1-112.8%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 43.5% 2.30 -1.3%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 29.2% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 23.7% 38.2% 2.62 -22.7%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Siedlce1.3

Stal Rzeszow1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SIEDLCE · PPG 1.27

STAL RZESZOW · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Siedlce (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

Stal Rzeszow (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Siedlce face Stal Rzeszow in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Siedlce a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Stal Rzeszow 29%, so Pogon Siedlce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pogon Siedlce and 1.1 for Stal Rzeszow (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Siedlce are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.13 for Stal Rzeszow. This match finished 1-2.

Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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