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Telstar vs Heracles Almelo Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

Telstar

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Heracles Almelo

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.9%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.3%1-24.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-19.1%4+-25.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 74.6% 1.34 -24.0%

Draw 22.0% 18.9% 5.30 +10.0%

Away win 21.3% 13.7% 7.30 +33.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 72.5% 1.38 -14.8%

Over 3.5 51.0% 50.0% 2.00 +2.0%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telstar2.5

Heracles Almelo1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TELSTAR · PPG 1.06

HERACLES ALMELO · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.06) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Win probability 1X2

Telstar (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -24.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +10.0%

Heracles Almelo (A) 21.3%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV +33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telstar face Heracles Almelo in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telstar a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Heracles Almelo 21%, so Telstar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Telstar and 1.2 for Heracles Almelo (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telstar are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.25 for Heracles Almelo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Telstar vs Heracles Almelo Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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