Telstar vs Heracles Almelo Prediction & Tips

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Netherlands - Eredivisie Regular Season - 33 BUKO Stadion· Velsen-Zuid Sunday, May 10, 2026 14:45

Telstar PPG 1.06

3-0 HIT CS5

Heracles Almelo PPG 0.25

Away· +33.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.7%

Odds: 1.34 EV: -24.0%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 5.30 EV: +10.0%

Away 21.3%

Odds: 7.30 EV: +33.3%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.7% Odds: 1.38 -14.8%

Over 3.5 51.0% Odds: 2.00 +2.0%

BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.60 -5.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Telstar

2.54

Heracles Almelo

1.18

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -14.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-14.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.06) vs P(Home)=56.7%